Corona and Mathematics
Disclaimer
The information provided here is by no means comprehensive or authoritative, the data are not realistic and conclusions to the true development of the Corona pandemic are not applicable, nor admissible. The material is meant exclusively to educate about the mathematical methods behind epidemiologic projections. They are largely simplified and therefore need to be taken with caution. We accept no liability or responsibility whatsoever for correctnes or usefulness of the data. In particular, we warn users to take premature conclusions.
Please follow the official health suggestions and rules!
Currently (March 2020) the COVID-19 or Corona epidemic affects many and is a topic widely discussed. Information on the number of infected individuals make headlines every day. Almost every evening special issues are broadcast in TV, where experts explain the latest findings.
On this page we want to explain the mathematics behind such facts. Why can we know that the infections are so dangerous? Why do politicians and epicemiologists suggest such drastic measures restricting our lifes, where each winter seemingly more people die from the flu?
Such assumptions and prognostics are backed mathematical models, that have proved to be useful in the past. They allow accurate projections on the development of such an epicemic or pandemic. We want to explain such modeling by a simple example, the so called SIR model. Prof. Dr. Jörn Behrens, together with his daughters Laila and Janka, produced two short videos explaining in everyday (German) language, understandable by interested lay persons, how the SIR model is derived, and how to solve it numerically.
Video 1: How to derive the SIR model? (only in German available)
